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GCIO Insights
Really?
15th May 2023
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The drop in US inflation leaves long-term interest rates closer to real returns but not quite.
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US inflation expectations are still on the rise potentially pushing the case that bonds yields are not yet attractive enough for wholesale buying.
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Mixed economic data shows robust growth but clouds on the horizon from higher unemployment and tighter credit conditions.
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India – The growth market
GCIO INSIGHTS
It's a Fuzzy World
24th April 2023
There’s lot of ambiguity out there. Economists (and the Fed) use the word recession often, but economic activity is not rolling over quite as fast as some had feared. Headline inflation is declining, but core inflation remains persistent. US corporate results are surprising to the upside. Investors, meanwhile, are split into two opposite camps, the worried and the sanguine, with the markets oscillating between the two extreme views.
GCIO INSIGHTS
History is Not on the Side of a Fed Rate Cut
10th April 2023
History says a Fed rate cut is not on the cards.
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Looking back at the history of the circumstances that led to a cut in rates by the Fed, it is evident that an interest rate cut is not on the cards. Of course, a catastrophic fall in the markets or the economy could make the Fed rethink its plans.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Q1 Market Review - Better than it seemed
3rd April 2023
The just-concluded first quarter was a roller coaster. Just as the worries about higher inflation and higher interest rates for an extended period were unnerving the markets, the world changed suddenly. A mini-banking crisis took centre stage almost out of nowhere. Nevertheless, central bankers were quick to ride to the rescue to save the situation and calm sentiments. By the end of the quarter, the markets had raked in decent gains. However, despite those gains, there were still too many questions for investors to be firmly secure in their outlook for the markets.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Central Bankers' Job is Far from Done
6th March 2023
The US 10-year bond yield drifted briefly above 4.0% last week before retreating to remain virtually unchanged on the week at 3.95%. However, the economic news flow remains emphatically negative for the bond market. Still, the fact that yields have not moved higher has perhaps to do with hope among investors that the economic data flow for February, to be published through March, will be weaker.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Corporate India in Focus as Adani hits the Buffers
30th January 2023
India’s Adani Enterprises, which scripted a somewhat unprecedented ‘growth story’ that invited both awe and occasional scorn, found the ground sinking beneath its feet last week as a US research firm’s damning account of the meteoric rise in the share prices of the conglomerate and its group companies unnerved investors. The report from Hindenburg Research – a firm specialising in shorting stocks – raises issues that are extremely complex in nature and strikes at the heart of parts of corporate India.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Overtrading Risks Damaging your Portfolio
23rd January 2023
Last week was another week of commotion in the markets. A few days of negative returns had commentators talking about the downside risks before a better Friday showing from Wall Street had all the bullish comments hitting the wires again. As we have stressed upon all along, there are easier bets to take than just worrying about the level of equities. Asia performed well again last week and looks likely to continuing doing so aided by robust data, China re-opening, and reduced concerns about a significant tightening of monetary policies.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Cutting through the Tactical Noise
16th January 2023
The market's fixation last week with one US inflation number was intriguing. Even as we wondered if one month's data could prove anything, market commentators continued to appear distracted by the debate about the gap between what the market discounts and what the Fed will do next.
GCIO INSIGHTS
2022: Well, I'm Glad That's Over
2nd January 2023
2022 could be characterised as one of the most challenging for investors in decades. The highest inflation in the memory of many, central bankers initially underestimated the challenges ahead, and a war in Ukraine brought losses across asset classes.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Inflation and Central Bank Watch
12th December 2022
Major global central banks are due to increase interest rates this week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates by 50 basis points matching market expectations (of dialled down rate increases). The European Central Bank and the UK Monetary Policy Committee should also increase rates by 50bps each, capping a year that saw significant monetary tightening.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Dream On
5th December 2022
The performance of markets in November and the early days of December reflects the hope that good news is just around the corner. The markets prefer to ignore the economic data that shows global economy is in a significant downshift in growth and facing prolonged high-interest rates. The markets prefer to discount the hope that interest rates will peak soon, and central banks will apply themselves to loosening monetary policy, and growth will resume...Dream on.
GCIO INSIGHTS
Managing Tail Risks - US Government Bonds and the Oil Price
28th Nov 2022
Judging by history, the US yield curve has an extraordinary inversion. But what does it mean? Extraordinary, because since 1976 there have been only 21 quarters when the yield curve turned negative, which is equivalent to 11% of all quarters since then...
GCIO INSIGHTS
It's Just Not That Easy
21st Nov 2022
After the recent good US consumer and producer price inflation reports, it was easy to conclude that there are much better times ahead in the asset markets. Since the equity market low in September, the markets have rallied strongly on the back of good inflation data...
GCIO INSIGHTS
Deflating Exaggerated Worry
14th Nov 2022
What a difference one number can make! We knew that markets were primed to react to any word from a central banker that implied a pivot to comparatively easier monetary conditions ahead. However, it ultimately proved to be just one 'good' inflation data point that turned sentiments around...
GCIO INTERVIEWS LIBRARY
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GCIO INSIGHTS LIBRARY
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Central Banks Going Soft? We Doubt It
The Domincile to the Fear of Upside
What Breaks Next and What Will They Do
We Just Don't Trust It
31st Oct 2022
24th Oct 2022
17th Oct 2022
10th Oct 2022
A Challenge and an Opportunity
Trying to Keep an Open Mind
The Dollar - the Best of a Bad Bunch
US Inflation 9% and everything is fine right?
The Fed Serves Up a Reality Check
As Bad as It Felt
One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer
Help Less Central Banks
11th July 2022
4th July 2022
27th June 2022
20th June 2022
8th August 2022
1st August 2022
25th July 2022
18th July 2022
13th June 2022
6th June 2022
30th May 2022
23rd May 2022
5th Sept 2022
29th August 2022
22nd August 2022
15th August 2022
3rd Oct 2022
26th Sept 2022
20th Sept 2022
12th Sept 2022
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