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GCIO Insights

Inflation Fight


29th June 2023


  • US and UK inflation surprises to the upside  

  • Market now prices a high risk of a further 25ps Fed rate increase at June meeting

  • US 10-year government bond yield getting closer to offering real value

  • Bank of England lacking credibility in its inflation fight

National currency

GCIO Insights



15th May 2023


  • The drop in US inflation leaves long-term interest rates closer to real returns but not quite.

  • US inflation expectations are still on the rise potentially pushing the case that bonds yields are not yet attractive enough for wholesale buying.

  • Mixed economic data shows robust growth but clouds on the horizon from higher unemployment and tighter credit conditions.

  • India – The growth market

Businessman Thinking


It's a Fuzzy World


24th April 2023


There’s lot of ambiguity out there. Economists (and the Fed) use the word recession often, but economic activity is not rolling over quite as fast as some had feared. Headline inflation is declining, but core inflation remains persistent. US corporate results are surprising to the upside. Investors, meanwhile, are split into two opposite camps, the worried and the sanguine, with the markets oscillating between the two extreme views.

Old Globe


History is Not on the Side of a Fed Rate Cut


10th April 2023


History says a Fed rate cut is not on the cards.

Looking back at the history of the circumstances that led to a cut in rates by the Fed, it is evident that an interest rate cut is not on the cards. Of course, a catastrophic fall in the markets or the economy could make the Fed rethink its plans.


Q1 Market Review - Better than it seemed


3rd April 2023


The just-concluded first quarter was a roller coaster. Just as the worries about higher inflation and higher interest rates for an extended period were unnerving the markets, the world changed suddenly. A mini-banking crisis took centre stage almost out of nowhere. Nevertheless, central bankers were quick to ride to the rescue to save the situation and calm sentiments. By the end of the quarter, the markets had raked in decent gains. However, despite those gains, there were still too many questions for investors to be firmly secure in their outlook for the markets. 

Judge's Table
Central control room


Central Bankers' Job is Far from Done


6th March 2023


The US 10-year bond yield drifted briefly above 4.0% last week before retreating to remain virtually unchanged on the week at 3.95%. However, the economic news flow remains emphatically negative for the bond market. Still, the fact that yields have not moved higher has perhaps to do with hope among investors that the economic data flow for February, to be published through March, will be weaker.


Corporate India in Focus as Adani hits the Buffers


30th January 2023


India’s Adani Enterprises, which scripted a somewhat unprecedented ‘growth story’ that invited both awe and occasional scorn, found the ground sinking beneath its feet last week as a US research firm’s damning account of the meteoric rise in the share prices of the conglomerate and its group companies unnerved investors. The report from Hindenburg Research – a firm specialising in shorting stocks – raises issues that are extremely complex in nature and strikes at the heart of parts of corporate India.

Mumbai India


Overtrading Risks Damaging your Portfolio


23rd January 2023


Last week was another week of commotion in the markets. A few days of negative returns had commentators talking about the downside risks before a better Friday showing from Wall Street had all the bullish comments hitting the wires again. As we have stressed upon all along, there are easier bets to take than just worrying about the level of equities. Asia performed well again last week and looks likely to continuing doing so aided by robust data, China re-opening, and reduced concerns about a significant tightening of monetary policies.


Cutting through the Tactical Noise


16th January 2023


The market's fixation last week with one US inflation number was intriguing. Even as we wondered if one month's data could prove anything, market commentators continued to appear distracted by the debate about the gap between what the market discounts and what the Fed will do next.

Business Meeting
Rush Hour


Shaping 2023


9th January 2023


As we hit refresh with the onset of a new year, we wish to highlight the factors that will, in our view, determine the path that asset markets will take through 2023.


2022: Well, I'm Glad That's Over


2nd January 2023


2022 could be characterised as one of the most challenging for investors in decades. The highest inflation in the memory of many, central bankers initially underestimated the challenges ahead, and a war in Ukraine brought losses across asset classes.

New Year Sign


Inflation and Central Bank Watch


12th December 2022


Major global central banks are due to increase interest rates this week. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates by 50 basis points matching market expectations (of dialled down rate increases). The European Central Bank and the UK Monetary Policy Committee should also increase rates by 50bps each, capping a year that saw significant monetary tightening.


Dream On


5th December 2022


The performance of markets in November and the early days of December reflects the hope that good news is just around the corner. The markets prefer to ignore the economic data that shows global economy is in a significant downshift in growth and facing prolonged high-interest rates. The markets prefer to discount the hope that interest rates will peak soon, and central banks will apply themselves to loosening monetary policy, and growth will resume...Dream on.

Dream House


Managing Tail Risks - US Government Bonds and the Oil Price


28th Nov 2022


Judging by history, the US yield curve has an extraordinary inversion. But what does it mean? Extraordinary, because since 1976 there have been only 21 quarters when the yield curve turned negative, which is equivalent to 11% of all quarters since then...


It's Just Not That Easy


21st Nov 2022


After the recent good US consumer and producer price inflation reports, it was easy to conclude that there are much better times ahead in the asset markets. Since the equity market low in September, the markets have rallied strongly on the back of good inflation data...


Deflating Exaggerated Worry


14th Nov 2022


What a difference one number can make! We knew that markets were primed to react to any word from a central banker that implied a pivot to comparatively easier monetary conditions ahead. However, it ultimately proved to be just one 'good' inflation data point that turned sentiments around...


Central Bankers Diverge, as Investors Go Bottom Fishing


7th Nov 2022


When it comes to global central banks, there’s no one-size-fits-all approach that does wonders. As the banks attempt to cure the ills of the global economy, they employ measures that are often widely different......

Hubbis Logo no shadow - CMYK.webp


Feature article with Hubbis

20th October 2021

Private Clients and the need to adapt investment portfolios with a proper
historical perspective - An Interview with Gary Dugan, CEO, The Global CIO


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